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You have to take into account that Mewtwo is 20 base Speed faster, which assuming Lugia has a Speed+ nature, Mewtwo would still go first unless Ninjask BPassed Lugia some speed boosts beforehand, but as this is a straight-up duel (no outside help) that's more of a side-note.
You do bring up a valid point, though, in that lack of STAB makes this a troublesome battle for Mewtwo. It would be a close battle, probably, especially if Lugia sneaks in a critical hit.